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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest shock.

But this year's race is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still