Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
